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"The Psychology of Prediction"

A nice statement on why, like establishing causality, prediction is difficult. Sample:

3. History is the study of surprising events. Prediction is using historical data to forecast what events will happen next.

Do you see the irony?

Historical data is a good guide to the future. But the most important events in historical data are the big outliers, the record-breaking events. They are what move the needle. We use those outliers to guide our views of things like worst-case scenarios. But those record-setting events, when they occurred, had no precedent. So the forecaster who assumes the worst (and best) events of the past will match the worst (and best) events of the future is not following history; they’re accidentally assuming the history of unprecedented events happening doesn’t apply to the future.

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