"California May Be Coming for You"
"If You Can’t Afford the Rent, It’s My Problem, Too"

"Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting Recessions?"

Easy: macro is hard.

recent working paper by Zidong An, Joao Tovar Jalles, and Prakash Loungani discovered that of 153 recessions in 63 countries from 1992 to 2014, only five were predicted by a consensus of private-sector economists in April of the preceding year. And the economists tended to underestimate the magnitude of the slump until the year was almost over.

Remember: "There’s only one reliable rule of thumb in macro".