Says it all, part 1
Well, your mom is so fat, her blood type is Ragu

A better way--than exponential smoothing--to forecast production and inventory . . .

. . . is proposed by J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green in "How to Forecast for Recessions and Recoveries". (I thank Professor Armstrong for sending me the paper.)

If forecasting demand is of interest to you, you might also find Professor Armstrong's paper (with Green), "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods" interesting. It summarizes a lot of his previous work on the subject.