October 29, 2003
France opposed our plans for Iraq and criticized us severely. Some Americans--particularly in the blogosphere--called for a boycott of French products. Question: is there evidence of a boycott in the foreign trade figures?
Using the online data provided by the U.S. International Trade Commission, we can take a first cut at an answer. For January through August 2003, the dollar value of U.S. imports from the European Union countries rose 8% over the same period of 2002. Of the 15 EU countries, imports rose by double-digit percentages in 9, single-digit percentages in 3, and declined in only 3. But one of those declining 3 was France. Evidence of a boycott?
It appears not. All of the unusual behavior of French imports comes from just two trade categories: aircraft, and turobjects and gas turbines. And for both of these categories, 2002 imports were noticeably lower than 2001 imports--that is, they were falling before the French started giving us grief over Iraq. (What happened in these two categories is left as an exercise for the reader.) The category that seems to me to be most subject to pressure from angry U.S. consumers--beverages, including wines and liquor--rose year over year during Jan.-Aug. 2003.
These numbers are just merchandise imports; they wouldn't pick up, for example, a fall in the number of Americans visiting EuroDisney. And "further research is needed." But this first looks finds less drama that one might have thought.