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August 09, 2014

"Why Top NBA Draft Picks So Often Disappoint"

"Managers seem to think that youth, points scored, and Final Four experience predict college players' pro performance. History tells a different story."


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Joe R.

"The likely reason for this history of failure: Teams use the wrong metrics when selecting new members."

OK. But the author doesn't tell the reader what magical metrics would predict success in the NBA.


He seems to further down [or maybe I saw that someplace else]: it's shooting percentage, rebounding adjusted for position, and possibly age. He also seems to figure some kind of games won above average [or replacement or some such.]
I would like to see if he has a paper or other piece that tracks college players over a decade or so and compares those metrics to NBA play.

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