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February 24, 2014

Two recent papers co-authored by J. Scott Armstrong

Courtesy of Professor Armstrong, here is notice of two papers readers of the Door might well find interesting:

"Evidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change Policies". A key part of the Abstract:

The findings reinforce earlier conclusions that the IPCC scenario of dangerous increases in global mean temperatures fails to pass basic validation tests, and that the no-trend model provides the only 
scientific long-term climate forecasts. Without a scientific forecast of a global warming, there is no rational basis for government regulations, subsidies, funding, or penalties. Furthermore, a scientific forecast of global warming  is not, by itself, a basis for action. That would require scientific forecasts that the warming would be harmful and forecasts that cost-effective policies would reduce the harm.

"Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review". This paper is sharply critical of how companies tend to select CEOs and offers suggestions for improvement. (For a summary, see "The ‘Moneyball’ Approach to Hiring CEOs".)


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Makes sense to me, but then I'm a numbers guy.

I do remember a time more than 30 years ago. I was recruited for a job running a smallish ag business because the sole owner wanted to retire and no one in his family wanted or was qualified [at least in his opinion] for the job. I spent 2 days interviewing, mostly talking to him and discussing the business and stuff. He seemed happy when I left and then . . . nothing.

Well, no one got hired and about 18 months later darned if I wasn't "recruited' again for the same job!! I couldn't believe it, so I went again. He had totally forgotten he had ever met me, so far as I could tell. Pretty much the same story. I had a really good record in all the areas he said were his need and could prove it. Once again no offer.

When I got recruited yet a third time a little more than a year later all I could do was laugh. I still don't know if he just couldn't let go or if I somehow just didn't 'fit' his pattern. Ah, well.

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