Two recent papers co-authored by J. Scott Armstrong
Courtesy of Professor Armstrong, here is notice of two papers readers of the Door might well find interesting:
"Evidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change Policies". A key part of the Abstract:
The findings reinforce earlier conclusions that the IPCC scenario of dangerous increases in global mean temperatures fails to pass basic validation tests, and that the no-trend model provides the only
scientific long-term climate forecasts. Without a scientific forecast of a global warming, there is no rational basis for government regulations, subsidies, funding, or penalties. Furthermore, a scientific forecast of global warming is not, by itself, a basis for action. That would require scientific forecasts that the warming would be harmful and forecasts that cost-effective policies would reduce the harm.
"Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review". This paper is sharply critical of how companies tend to select CEOs and offers suggestions for improvement. (For a summary, see "The ‘Moneyball’ Approach to Hiring CEOs".)