"Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative"
Courtesy of Professor J. Scott Armstrong of Wharton, here's a link to a working paper that is potentially very useful to anyone who forecasts.
And Professor Armstrong writes:
The authors are looking for relevant studies that they have overlooked in their working paper. They are particularly interested to learn of experimental findings that might challenge the Golden Rule. They ask that you check the references in the paper to see whether any of your own experimental studies, or others with which you are familiar, were overlooked.
The authors are also seeking more experts to review the paper before it is published in the Journal of Business Research. They will acknowledge reviewers, so this is an opportunity to share in the adulation – or blame –for the paper.