Oscar nominations: score one for math over "experts"
The Oscar nominations have been announced. (Link fixed now. Thanks, Ted.) Esquire's statistics and "intimidating equations"--don't ask me to defend either--ranked ten movies on their chances of getting a Best Picture nomination. Nine of them did. (The exception was Inside Llewyn Davis. Also interesting, as we'll see in a second: their eleventh ranked movie, far below the top ten, Saving Mr. Banks, didn't get nominated.)
The L.A. Times's panel of experts only got eight of their top ten for Best Picture correct. They also missed on Inside Llewyn Davis but they missed--6 out of 6 experts voting for--on Saving Mr. Banks.
So--marginally perhaps--math outperformed the experts this year.
(The expert panel, on the rest of the categories, overestimated Saving Mr. Banks and Oprah. Interesting.)