Professor Munger advances an interesting hypothesis:
"One of the thing that frustrates me is the centrality of the "job talk" for professional hiring in academics.
"It's an artificial situation, and has almost nothing to do with whether the person will be a success. Not surprisingly, "good" job talks turn out to have almost no predictive value in judging tenure chances, and "bad" talks don't tell you much, either."
We need a study.