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September 2012

"The 12 Coolest Things We Learned From Nate Silver's Brand New Book"

This is interesting:

The National Weather Service makes one of the best models in the world

The weather — "the epitome of a dynamic system" — has been increasingly predictable due to the National Weather Service's use of modeling on supercomputers. They've halved the average error in a temperature forecast since 1970, and they've been able to cut down the average error in the location of hurricane landfall from a 350 mile radius to a 100 mile radius in a mere 25 years.

Their calibration is as near to perfect as can be expected when it comes to forecast probability: "When they say there is a 20 percent chance of rain, it really does rain 20 percent of the time."