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March 22, 2012

"Do Leading Indicators Help Predict GDP Growth Rates?"

Not so much.

The only variables that seem to have any individual predictive power beyond that already embedded in lagged GDP changes are the S&P500, the ISM’s new manufacturing orders, and private housing building permits. 

But if you like forecasting, you might like this: "Everybody's Playing With This Unemployment Calculator That Lets You Predict The Future".

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