"Get a free college education online"
Well, not exactly. You won't get the credential. But I predict that more and more employers will assume the credentialing role themselves and the diploma will become ever less important.
Short of a severe and ongoing market failure I don't see many firms offering credentialling (other than a certain subset o firms that already offer this, like the Msft and Cisco certified engineer programs).
What's more likely is that universities will morph into (or be replaced by) educational services where the most commonly purchased item is the graded exam (after you've listened to the free lectures, bought the textbook off iTunes for $19.99, and participated in study groups via Skype). Harvard and UC-Berkeley will then be in direct competition with Princeton Review.
It's all about the disintermediation. And the killer app will be when someone invents a standardized method for measuring competence - because then you can compare apples to apples and see what you're REALLY getting for those tuition dollars.
Posted by: Brock | February 14, 2010 at 08:57 PM