When is the lead in a basketball game "safe"?
Bill James thinks he has an answer.
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March 29, 2008
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Situation 1: The score is 60-48. Villains hit a 3-pointer with a minute to go, get fouled, and make a four-point play to make the score 60-52 with 60 seconds to play and Heroes' ball. James says the lead is safe for Heroes.
Situation 2: The score is 60-50. Villains get an easy layup, and the score is 60-52 with 60 seconds to play and Heroes' ball. James says the lead isn't safe for Heroes.
What's wrong with this picture? And is really so useful to know that a team with a 12-point lead with a minute to play has a safe lead?
Posted by: Ted | March 30, 2008 at 09:15 AM